▲Withdrawal Gates Become the Standard Failure

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 39 · +4 since Sep 13 · ranged 35 to 39

Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.

Why the conviction moved

• Sep 14
  Strengthened +4

  Cosmos Hub stopped producing blocks at 18:12 UTC on September 8 and has since recovered, but Ledger users still cannot move ATOM six days on, with no cause or restoration estimate disclosed. The chain works and the assets exist — the failure is an intermediary service path, which is the frozen-access failure mode the thesis identifies rather than a theft.

• Sep 12
  Strengthened +3

  Liquid bitcoin trades again against reserves covering 85.15% of supply, meaning holders face an unfunded ~15% shortfall while redemption continues at par rather than a visible freeze or theft event. This is the thesis's failure mode — an unfunded gap carried on the books — arriving through a sidechain peg rather than an exchange or lending contract.

Showing the last 2 days. Unlock the full record.

Source trail

• Supporting · September 14, 2026

  Ledger Users Still Cannot Move ATOM Six Days After the Cosmos Hub Stalled

  Cosmos Hub stopped producing blocks at 18:12 UTC on September 8 and has since recovered, but Ledger users still cannot move ATOM six days on, with no cause or restoration estimate disclosed. The chain works and the assets exist — the failure is an intermediary service path, which is the frozen-access failure mode the thesis identifies rather than a theft.

  CryptoSlate

• Supporting · September 12, 2026

  Blockstream Refuses 10% Bounty for 598 Bitcoin Still Held After Liquid Sidechain Drain

  Liquid bitcoin trades again against reserves covering 85.15% of supply, meaning holders face an unfunded ~15% shortfall while redemption continues at par rather than a visible freeze or theft event. This is the thesis's failure mode — an unfunded gap carried on the books — arriving through a sidechain peg rather than an exchange or lending contract.

  Bitcoin Magazine