▼Dollar Liquidity Sets Crypto's Direction

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 96 · -2 since Oct 11 · ranged 96 to 98

Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.

Why the conviction moved

• Oct 10
  Context

  Spot bitcoin ETFs lost $729 million in two sessions with bitcoin near $83,000, and ether funds extended an eight-session outflow streak to $641.3 million. The outflows show risk appetite is weak, but the reporting does not tie them to reserve or Treasury-cash moves. Polymarket's $3.1M-liquidity October Fed market prices 84% no change and 16% for a 25bp hike, a firmer-rates backdrop that fits, but does not prove, a macro driver.

• Oct 9
  Strengthened +2

  Bitcoin recovered to $82,000 on a macro headline, Trump ruling out Iran strikes, while spot bitcoin, ether and solana funds all posted net outflows on October 8. Fed minutes tied higher yields partly to borrowing for AI. Price is following rates and risk-asset funding conditions rather than crypto-native flows.

Showing the last 2 days. Unlock the full record.

Source trail

• Context · October 10, 2026

  Bitcoin ETFs lose $729 million in two sessions as bitcoin trades near $83,000, a year after the October 2025 liquidation

  Spot bitcoin ETFs lost $729 million in two sessions with bitcoin near $83,000, and ether funds extended an eight-session outflow streak to $641.3 million. The outflows show risk appetite is weak, but the reporting does not tie them to reserve or Treasury-cash moves. Polymarket's $3.1M-liquidity October Fed market prices 84% no change and 16% for a 25bp hike, a firmer-rates backdrop that fits, but does not prove, a macro driver.

  Bitcoin Magazine

• Supporting · October 9, 2026

  Bitcoin Recovers to $82,000 After Trump Rules Out Iran Strikes, While Ether Bets Are Liquidated at Six Times Bitcoin's Rate

  Bitcoin recovered to $82,000 on a macro headline, Trump ruling out Iran strikes, while spot bitcoin, ether and solana funds all posted net outflows on October 8. Fed minutes tied higher yields partly to borrowing for AI. Price is following rates and risk-asset funding conditions rather than crypto-native flows.

  CoinDesk