Ether's Scarcity Thesis Tested
As activity migrates to layer-2 networks that pay little to the base layer, ether's net supply will keep growing near the staking issuance rate, pushing the market to value ether as a yield asset rather than a deflationary one.
weakening · confidence 36 · Emerging (watchlist) · tracking since October 10, 2026 · updated October 12, 2026
Score history
Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.
Now 36 · -2 since Oct 11 · ranged 36 to 38
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Why the conviction moved
- Oct 10Strengthened +4
A CryptoSlate ledger dated Oct. 9 shows ether fee burns have offset only 2.07% of new issuance in 2026. That leaves net supply growing near the staking issuance rate and makes a deflationary-ether narrative depend on a large, so far absent, rise in paid blockspace demand.
Source trail
Supporting · October 10, 2026
Ether fee burns offset only 2.07% of new issuance in 2026
A CryptoSlate ledger dated Oct. 9 shows ether fee burns have offset only 2.07% of new issuance in 2026. That leaves net supply growing near the staking issuance rate and makes a deflationary-ether narrative depend on a large, so far absent, rise in paid blockspace demand.
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