▼Ethereum Rebuilds Its Base Layer for Throughput

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 33 · -2 since Oct 11 · ranged 33 to 35

Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.

Why the conviction moved

• Oct 8
  Strengthened +1

  Another Ethereum Research post warns that the proposed SETCODEFROM opcode in the state redesign would leave orphaned bytecode with no one assigned to clean it up. Restructuring core state is still active and is producing its own second-order problems.

• Oct 7
  Strengthened +2

  Two Ethereum L2s, Abstract (closing December 15) and Blast (withdrawal deadline October 26), are shutting down within a week and sending users back to mainnet. This is the move of activity and economics away from marginal rollups and toward layer 1 that this thesis expects.

• Oct 7
  Strengthened +2

  Ethereum research posts debate two things. First, whether a proposed opcode combined with moving contract code into the state root could leave nodes that synced differently holding different state. Second, a proposal to let block production run ahead of validation. Both show state storage and the consensus pipeline are still being restructured for throughput, and that the work carries consensus-safety tradeoffs.

Source trail

• Supporting · October 8, 2026

  Ethereum researchers price the cost of censorship under multiple proposers and warn of orphaned bytecode in state redesign

  Another Ethereum Research post warns that the proposed SETCODEFROM opcode in the state redesign would leave orphaned bytecode with no one assigned to clean it up. Restructuring core state is still active and is producing its own second-order problems.

  Ethereum Research

• Supporting · October 7, 2026

  Ethereum researchers debate how to handle orphaned code and serial block verification as base-layer redesign work continues

  Ethereum research posts debate two things. First, whether a proposed opcode combined with moving contract code into the state root could leave nodes that synced differently holding different state. Second, a proposal to let block production run ahead of validation. Both show state storage and the consensus pipeline are still being restructured for throughput, and that the work carries consensus-safety tradeoffs.

  Ethereum Research