Ethereum Scales Its Base Layer

Successive Ethereum forks that raise base-layer throughput will keep pulling activity and fee revenue from general-purpose rollups back to layer one, compressing the economic case for rollups that do not offer something the base layer cannot.

weakening · confidence 32 · Emerging (watchlist) · tracking since October 8, 2026 · updated October 12, 2026

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Oct 11 · 34Oct 12 · 32

Now 32 · -2 since Oct 11 · ranged 32 to 34

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Why the conviction moved

Oct 8
Weakened
Sampled Glamsterdam blocks on Sepolia used less than half of the new 200M gas budget. Capacity is arriving ahead of demand, which weakens the claim that more L1 throughput will by itself pull activity and fees back from rollups. Testnet usage is a weak proxy, though.

Source trail

Contradicting · October 8, 2026
Ethereum's Glamsterdam upgrade goes live on Sepolia with a 200 million gas ceiling that early blocks leave half empty
Sampled Glamsterdam blocks on Sepolia used less than half of the new 200M gas budget. Capacity is arriving ahead of demand, which weakens the claim that more L1 throughput will by itself pull activity and fees back from rollups. Testnet usage is a weak proxy, though.
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