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Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 34 · -2 since Oct 11 · ranged 34 to 36

Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.

Why the conviction moved

• Oct 11
  Weakened

  Bitcoin and ether order books are deeper than at the time of last October's $19 billion flash crash, so the claim that market-maker capital is not returning fails for the major assets. Thinning shows up only in altcoins. Ether ETFs also posted their largest weekly net outflow since late January, and a new HyperEVM exchange opened with up to 1,000x leverage. That suggests tail risk now sits more in leverage than in thin books on the majors.

• Oct 9
  Strengthened +1

  In the swing around the $82K recovery, ether long and short positions were liquidated at six times bitcoin's rate, a day before the anniversary of last October's flash crash. Outsized liquidations in the second-largest asset are consistent with moves being amplified by thin books.

Showing the last 2 days. Unlock the full record.

Source trail

• Contradicting · October 11, 2026

  A Year After the $19 Billion Flash Crash, Bitcoin and Ether Order Books Are Deeper While Altcoin Liquidity Keeps Thinning

  Bitcoin and ether order books are deeper than at the time of last October's $19 billion flash crash, so the claim that market-maker capital is not returning fails for the major assets. Thinning shows up only in altcoins. Ether ETFs also posted their largest weekly net outflow since late January, and a new HyperEVM exchange opened with up to 1,000x leverage. That suggests tail risk now sits more in leverage than in thin books on the majors.

  CoinDesk

• Supporting · October 9, 2026

  Bitcoin Recovers to $82,000 After Trump Rules Out Iran Strikes, While Ether Bets Are Liquidated at Six Times Bitcoin's Rate

  In the swing around the $82K recovery, ether long and short positions were liquidated at six times bitcoin's rate, a day before the anniversary of last October's flash crash. Outsized liquidations in the second-largest asset are consistent with moves being amplified by thin books.

  CoinDesk