▲Regulatory Perimeter for Crypto Hardens in EU and US

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 89 · +2 since Oct 9 · ranged 87 to 89

Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.

Why the conviction moved

• Oct 10
  Strengthened +2

  The CFTC's proposed rule defining event contracts as swaps, with an interim exclusion for casino-style products, is US regulators choosing formal rulemaking over litigation-by-litigation exemptions. That narrows which on-chain and off-chain prediction products can operate under federal cover.

• Oct 9
  Strengthened +1

  Greece is drafting a 15% tax on crypto gains while Thailand clears spot bitcoin and ether ETFs (trading from October 16) and Standard Chartered plans custody in Singapore. Perimeters are hardening by routing activity into licensed, taxed channels, though the Asian moves widen regulated access more than they cull operators.

Showing the last 2 days. Unlock the full record.

Source trail

• Supporting · October 10, 2026

  CFTC moves to define event contracts as swaps after appeals courts rule against Kalshi

  The CFTC's proposed rule defining event contracts as swaps, with an interim exclusion for casino-style products, is US regulators choosing formal rulemaking over litigation-by-litigation exemptions. That narrows which on-chain and off-chain prediction products can operate under federal cover.

  CoinDesk

• Supporting · October 9, 2026

  Binance Cuts Eight Services and 22 Tokens in Brazil as Greece Drafts a 15% Crypto Gains Tax and Thailand Clears Spot ETFs

  Greece is drafting a 15% tax on crypto gains while Thailand clears spot bitcoin and ether ETFs (trading from October 16) and Standard Chartered plans custody in Singapore. Perimeters are hardening by routing activity into licensed, taxed channels, though the Asian moves widen regulated access more than they cull operators.

  crypto.news