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Regulatory Perimeter for Crypto Hardens in EU and US

Over 3-6 months, enforcement deadlines and rulemaking debates narrow who can operate, with MiCA culling unlicensed EU firms and US regulators weighing durable rules over fragile exemptions.

weakening · confidence 96 · +1 7d · -4 30d · Medium term (3-9 months) · tracking since June 15, 2026 · updated October 30, 2026

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Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Oct 29 · 98Oct 30 · 96

Now 96 · -2 since Oct 29 · ranged 96 to 98

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Why the conviction moved

  • Oct 28
    Strengthened +3

    Treasury Secretary Bessent told Ripple's conference that regulators will build the crypto rules Congress did not pass. That shifts the US perimeter to agency rulemaking and charters, as the OCC's final approval of Ripple's trust bank shows, instead of statute.

  • Oct 27
    Strengthened +2

    US federal stablecoin licensing rules are approaching, the OCC is granting charters such as Ripple's, and Canada and Japan are setting their own stablecoin reserve and distribution rules. Who may issue and hold stablecoin reserves is being set by charter and statute, not by exemption.

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Source trail

  • Supporting · October 28, 2026

    Bessent Tells Ripple Conference That Regulators Will Build the Crypto Rules Congress Did Not Pass

    Treasury Secretary Bessent told Ripple's conference that regulators will build the crypto rules Congress did not pass. That shifts the US perimeter to agency rulemaking and charters, as the OCC's final approval of Ripple's trust bank shows, instead of statute.

    CoinDesk
  • Supporting · October 27, 2026

    The OCC gives Ripple final approval for a national trust bank to hold RLUSD reserves and enterprise crypto custody

    US federal stablecoin licensing rules are approaching, the OCC is granting charters such as Ripple's, and Canada and Japan are setting their own stablecoin reserve and distribution rules. Who may issue and hold stablecoin reserves is being set by charter and statute, not by exemption.

    CoinDesk

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