▼Inflation Reacceleration Reopens the Hiking Cycle

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 76 · -2 since Oct 9 · ranged 76 to 78

Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.

Why the conviction moved

• Oct 9
  Context

  Fed minutes cited in the report tie higher yields partly to borrowing for AI. That is a supply-of-debt explanation running alongside the inflation-surprise mechanism, and the article contains no new CPI print. Polymarket, on a fairly deep book, prices a 25bp December hike at 74% and two 2026 hikes at 69%, so the market still leans toward the tightening path.

• Oct 8
  Strengthened +3

  Brent topped $102 on a reported Iran strike plan, adding an energy-driven inflation push as Treasury yields rise and compress leveraged assets. Polymarket's December Fed market ($923K liquidity) prices a 72% chance of a 25bp hike and 3% for 50bp+, against about 1% for any cut, so the market agrees with the hiking-cycle thesis even with October priced 83% for no change.

Showing the last 2 days. Unlock the full record.

Source trail

• Context · October 9, 2026

  Bitcoin Recovers to $82,000 After Trump Rules Out Iran Strikes, While Ether Bets Are Liquidated at Six Times Bitcoin's Rate

  Fed minutes cited in the report tie higher yields partly to borrowing for AI. That is a supply-of-debt explanation running alongside the inflation-surprise mechanism, and the article contains no new CPI print. Polymarket, on a fairly deep book, prices a 25bp December hike at 74% and two 2026 hikes at 69%, so the market still leans toward the tightening path.

  CoinDesk

• Supporting · October 8, 2026

  Bitcoin falls below $83,000 as Brent crude tops $102 on a reported Iran strike plan and Treasury yields climb

  Brent topped $102 on a reported Iran strike plan, adding an energy-driven inflation push as Treasury yields rise and compress leveraged assets. Polymarket's December Fed market ($923K liquidity) prices a 72% chance of a 25bp hike and 3% for 50bp+, against about 1% for any cut, so the market agrees with the hiking-cycle thesis even with October priced 83% for no change.

  CoinDesk