▼On-Chain Capital Concentrates

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 78 · -2 since Sep 13 · ranged 78 to 80

Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.

Why the conviction moved

• Sep 12
  Strengthened +4

  Liquid staking now accounts for $52.3 billion while total DeFi value sits below $88 billion, meaning a single derivative category holds more locked capital than most chains combined. That ratio is the concentration the thesis describes — capital pooling into the largest, most liquid primitive while long-tail protocols share a shrinking remainder.

• Sep 8
  Strengthened +7

  Harmony proposes shutting down its own blockchain and migrating ONE to Ethereum after an August exploit forged more than 3 trillion tokens and forced a rollback discarding over 141,000 blocks, warning that multisignature wallets and liquidity pools cannot be migrated. A layer-1 voluntarily terminating settlement and folding into Ethereum is the terminal form of the consolidation onto large chains the thesis predicts.

• Sep 8
  Strengthened +3

  Moonwell's remedy for its bad debt is an 85 percent cut to interest owed with suppliers still locked, and Orionx is winding down entirely rather than recapitalizing after a 7-million-dollar shortfall. Neither long-tail venue had a balance sheet or backstop to absorb a modest loss, which is the squeeze on smaller protocols the thesis describes.

Showing the last 2 days. Unlock the full record.

Source trail

• Supporting · September 12, 2026

  Liquid Staking Reaches $52.3 Billion While Total DeFi Value Sits Below $88 Billion

  Liquid staking now accounts for $52.3 billion while total DeFi value sits below $88 billion, meaning a single derivative category holds more locked capital than most chains combined. That ratio is the concentration the thesis describes — capital pooling into the largest, most liquid primitive while long-tail protocols share a shrinking remainder.

  Cointelegraph (Telegram)

• Supporting · September 8, 2026

  Harmony Proposes Shutting Down Its Own Blockchain and Moving ONE to Ethereum

  Harmony proposes shutting down its own blockchain and migrating ONE to Ethereum after an August exploit forged more than 3 trillion tokens and forced a rollback discarding over 141,000 blocks, warning that multisignature wallets and liquidity pools cannot be migrated. A layer-1 voluntarily terminating settlement and folding into Ethereum is the terminal form of the consolidation onto large chains the thesis predicts.

  CryptoSlate