▼Prediction Markets Become Financial Infrastructure

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 26 · -2 since Sep 13 · ranged 26 to 28

Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.

Why the conviction moved

• Sep 7
  Strengthened +4

  Alongside the Clarity Act fight, a separate dispute over the legal status of prediction markets is moving toward the Supreme Court. Escalation to the highest court means the sector's regulatory treatment gets settled by litigation rather than product growth, which is the dependency the thesis identifies.

• Sep 3
  Strengthened +4

  Kalshi's bitcoin perpetual futures now have the CFTC arguing in federal court on the venue's side against CME's challenge. A prediction-market operator whose product line and regulatory standing are being defended by its own regulator against the largest US derivatives exchange is further evidence these venues are becoming ordinary market infrastructure rather than a tolerated novelty.

Showing the last 2 days. Unlock the full record.

Source trail

• Supporting · September 7, 2026

  Lummis Says US Crypto Market-Structure Law Waits Until 2030 If the Clarity Act Fails Now

  Alongside the Clarity Act fight, a separate dispute over the legal status of prediction markets is moving toward the Supreme Court. Escalation to the highest court means the sector's regulatory treatment gets settled by litigation rather than product growth, which is the dependency the thesis identifies.

  Cointelegraph

• Supporting · September 3, 2026

  CFTC Asks a Federal Court to Throw Out CME's Challenge to Kalshi's Bitcoin Perpetual Futures

  Kalshi's bitcoin perpetual futures now have the CFTC arguing in federal court on the venue's side against CME's challenge. A prediction-market operator whose product line and regulatory standing are being defended by its own regulator against the largest US derivatives exchange is further evidence these venues are becoming ordinary market infrastructure rather than a tolerated novelty.

  crypto.news