▲Quantum Risk Moves From Theory to Crypto Roadmaps

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 100

Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.

Why the conviction moved

• Jul 31
  Strengthened +5

  Blockstream's Simplicity went live on Liquid mainnet with post-quantum signatures after eight years of development, with banks including Swisscom's and a Swiss cantonal lender writing lending contracts on it. Post-quantum schemes running real financial logic in production moves quantum-resistance from roadmap to shipped custody design, confirming the thesis.

• Jul 30
  Strengthened +4

  An Anthropic AI model broke the HAWK post-quantum signature candidate in 60 hours, cutting the smallest configuration's key-recovery cost from 2^64 to 2^38 operations (~67 million times less work) for roughly a $100,000 API bill. It moves the quantum-resistance conversation from abstract timelines to a concrete finding that even post-quantum candidates are fragile and AI is accelerating cryptanalysis, sharpening urgency around migration and custody roadmaps.

Showing the last 2 days. Unlock the full record.

Source trail

• Supporting · July 29, 2026

  Anthropic Says Claude Found a Real Weakness in a Post-Quantum Signature Under US Review

  Anthropic says Claude broke a 256-bit version of the HAWK post-quantum signature candidate in ~60 hours for ~$100,000 and sped up an attack on reduced AES (tech edition), showing AI-assisted cryptanalysis can already dent schemes under US review — sharpening the concrete custody-roadmap risk the thesis tracks.

  Cointelegraph

• Supporting · July 28, 2026

  Researchers Detail Post-Quantum Cryptography for Bandwidth- and Power-Constrained Networks

  A new paper details post-quantum cryptography tuned for bandwidth- and power-constrained networks, tackling the practical obstacle of larger keys and signatures that burden satellites, sensors and low-power devices. It advances quantum-resistance from theory toward deployable engineering, feeding the concrete-design pressure the thesis tracks.

  arXiv cs.CR