▲Sanctioned States Build Supervised Crypto Venues

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 49 · +5 since Nov 11 · ranged 44 to 49

Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.

Why the conviction moved

• Nov 12
  Strengthened +5

  Russia's central bank cleared exchanges to start organized crypto trading from November 22, as long as each gets central bank approval for its trading rules first. Moscow Exchange plans bitcoin, ether and USDT trading from December 1. A sanctioned state is moving crypto flows onto a supervised domestic exchange where they can be monitored, which is the core mechanism of this thesis.

• Nov 9
  Strengthened +3

  FinCEN's order cutting MEXC off from US banks over $16 billion in alleged Iran, North Korea and Russia flows is the Western half of the thesis: regulators shutting the offshore venues that carried sanctioned flows. That raises the pressure on those states to use domestic supervised venues instead.

Showing the last 2 days. Unlock the full record.

Source trail

• Supporting · November 12, 2026

  Russia's Central Bank Clears Exchanges to Begin Organized Crypto Trading From November 22

  Russia's central bank cleared exchanges to start organized crypto trading from November 22, as long as each gets central bank approval for its trading rules first. Moscow Exchange plans bitcoin, ether and USDT trading from December 1. A sanctioned state is moving crypto flows onto a supervised domestic exchange where they can be monitored, which is the core mechanism of this thesis.

  Bitcoin Magazine

• Supporting · November 9, 2026

  US Treasury cuts MEXC off from American banks as the European Union builds a crypto unit against Russian sanctions evasion

  FinCEN's order cutting MEXC off from US banks over $16 billion in alleged Iran, North Korea and Russia flows is the Western half of the thesis: regulators shutting the offshore venues that carried sanctioned flows. That raises the pressure on those states to use domestic supervised venues instead.

  CoinDesk