Bridge and Mint Exploits Sustain Heavy DeFi Losses
Over 3-6 months, recurring bridge proof-validation and unauthorized-mint exploits keep monthly DeFi losses elevated, including drains of deprecated contracts.
forming · confidence 99 · +7 7d · -1 30d · Medium term (3-9 months) · tracking since June 15, 2026 · updated October 10, 2026
Score history
Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.
Now 99
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Why the conviction moved
- Oct 10Context
NEAR Intents fully recovered the $3.87 million lost to a bridge-interaction bug. The bridge-related incident fits the pattern, but the full recovery means it adds nothing to net losses, while the other incidents (a SIM swap jailed in London, an unconfirmed Telegram Stars refund-logic claim) are social-engineering or off-chain cases.
- Oct 9Strengthened +2
Bitget's $387.5M theft, together with the NEAR Intents, Duelbits, Nostra and SingularityNET incidents, keeps monthly crypto theft totals high. The causes were hot-wallet and infrastructure compromises, not the bridge-proof or mint bugs the thesis names, so losses stay elevated through a wider set of attack paths.
- Oct 9Strengthened +2
One function in an abandoned MakerDAO keeper bot lacked an access check. An attacker used it to take over the dormant bot's position in Maker's core accounting contract, which still held unsettled 2020 auctions, and withdrew 200 WETH (about $540K), which reached Tornado Cash within six minutes. It is another drain of a deprecated contract, a pattern the thesis names explicitly.
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Source trail
Context · October 10, 2026
NEAR Intents recovers its full $3.87 million, a London court jails a SIM swapper, and Telegram faces an unconfirmed Stars exploit claim
NEAR Intents fully recovered the $3.87 million lost to a bridge-interaction bug. The bridge-related incident fits the pattern, but the full recovery means it adds nothing to net losses, while the other incidents (a SIM swap jailed in London, an unconfirmed Telegram Stars refund-logic claim) are social-engineering or off-chain cases.
Rekt NewsSupporting · October 9, 2026
Attacker Drains 200 WETH From Abandoned MakerDAO Keeper That Never Settled 2020 Auctions
One function in an abandoned MakerDAO keeper bot lacked an access check. An attacker used it to take over the dormant bot's position in Maker's core accounting contract, which still held unsettled 2020 auctions, and withdrew 200 WETH (about $540K), which reached Tornado Cash within six minutes. It is another drain of a deprecated contract, a pattern the thesis names explicitly.
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