▼US Crypto Rules Move by Agency Discretion

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 40 · -2 since Nov 11 · ranged 40 to 42

Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.

Why the conviction moved

• Nov 11
  Strengthened +2

  The CFTC is defending its own approval of crypto perpetual futures against a lawsuit from CME Group. The perps market's legal footing rests on an agency decision that an incumbent is challenging in court, not on a statute, which shows how reversible discretion-based rules are.

• Nov 10
  Strengthened +4

  FinCEN and the Federal Reserve withdrew the 2020 plan to cut the Travel Rule threshold to $250, dropping language that would have stated explicitly that the funds-transfer rules cover crypto. The $3,000 threshold and existing guidance stay in place, so the outcome is another agency decision that a future administration could reverse.

Source trail

• Supporting · November 11, 2026

  CFTC Warns Kalshi of Possible Charges While Siding With Crypto Firms on Perpetual Futures

  The CFTC is defending its own approval of crypto perpetual futures against a lawsuit from CME Group. The perps market's legal footing rests on an agency decision that an incumbent is challenging in court, not on a statute, which shows how reversible discretion-based rules are.

  BWE News (Bloomberg)

• Supporting · November 10, 2026

  FinCEN and the Federal Reserve Withdraw the 2020 Plan to Cut the Travel Rule Threshold to $250

  FinCEN and the Federal Reserve withdrew the 2020 plan to cut the Travel Rule threshold to $250, dropping language that would have stated explicitly that the funds-transfer rules cover crypto. The $3,000 threshold and existing guidance stay in place, so the outcome is another agency decision that a future administration could reverse.

  Bitcoin Magazine