▲Argentina's Disinflation Stalls

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 42 · +2 since Nov 11 · ranged 40 to 42

Why the conviction moved

• Nov 12
  Strengthened +2

  Argentina's Economy Ministry reported a 103% debt rollover by excluding two inflation-linked bonds. Analysts who counted them put it near 84%, which leaves about 1.7 trillion pesos in the market. Adding peso liquidity, and using flattering accounting, works against further disinflation and adds to pressure on the managed peso.

• Nov 11
  Strengthened +3

  Analysts expect Thursday's October CPI to show a 1.8% monthly rise, still stuck near 2%. Textile output is down almost 34% in three years and about 1,000 textile firms have closed under Milei, the squeeze on local industry from a strengthening real exchange rate that the thesis predicts.

Source trail

• Supporting · November 12, 2026

  Argentina's Treasury Releases Pesos After Rolling Over Less Than All Maturing Debt

  Argentina's Economy Ministry reported a 103% debt rollover by excluding two inflation-linked bonds. Analysts who counted them put it near 84%, which leaves about 1.7 trillion pesos in the market. Adding peso liquidity, and using flattering accounting, works against further disinflation and adds to pressure on the managed peso.

  Clarín (Economía)

• Supporting · November 11, 2026

  Argentina Awaits October Inflation Data With Monthly Price Growth Stuck Near 2%

  Analysts expect Thursday's October CPI to show a 1.8% monthly rise, still stuck near 2%. Textile output is down almost 34% in three years and about 1,000 textile firms have closed under Milei, the squeeze on local industry from a strengthening real exchange rate that the thesis predicts.

  Clarín (Economía)