China's export-led growth keeps widening its surpluses with Europe and other partners, so those partners will keep adding tariffs, quotas and investigations, and trade friction will shift from Washington toward Brussels and emerging markets.
weakening · confidence 36 · Emerging (watchlist) · tracking since November 10, 2026 · updated November 12, 2026
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Now 36 · -2 since Nov 11 · ranged 36 to 38
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China's trade surplus passed $1 trillion by October as exports rose 35.2%, led by AI hardware. The surplus with the EU widened to $310.7 billion, which increases the pressure on Brussels to add new trade barriers, the shift in trade friction toward Europe that the thesis expects.
Supporting · November 10, 2026
China's Trade Surplus Tops $1 Trillion by October as Exports Rise 35.2%
China's trade surplus passed $1 trillion by October as exports rose 35.2%, led by AI hardware. The surplus with the EU widened to $310.7 billion, which increases the pressure on Brussels to add new trade barriers, the shift in trade friction toward Europe that the thesis expects.
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