United States export controls push China to develop its own chips, computing hardware and artificial-intelligence systems, accelerating a split of global technology into competing spheres that reshapes supply chains and standards.
strengthening · confidence 99 · +3 7d · +14 30d · Long term (3-5+ years) · tracking since July 7, 2026 · updated August 27, 2026
Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.
Now 99 · +5 since Aug 26 · ranged 94 to 99
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Nvidia guided above $105 billion while excluding China entirely from its outlook, and Chinese investors pulled 560 billion yuan out of domestic mutual funds during a semiconductor selloff. A US vendor now modelling zero China revenue formalises the split into two demand pools, and the domestic fund outflow shows the cost of the parallel stack is being borne by Chinese savers rather than by Nvidia.
The parent of Chinese memory maker YMTC is preparing a Shanghai listing, building a domestic capital-raising channel for chip manufacturing as Europe's tech investment gap with the US widens.
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Supporting · August 27, 2026
Nvidia Reports $96.2 Billion in Quarterly Revenue and Guides Above $105 Billion, Excluding China Entirely
Nvidia guided above $105 billion while excluding China entirely from its outlook, and Chinese investors pulled 560 billion yuan out of domestic mutual funds during a semiconductor selloff. A US vendor now modelling zero China revenue formalises the split into two demand pools, and the domestic fund outflow shows the cost of the parallel stack is being borne by Chinese savers rather than by Nvidia.
South China Morning PostSupporting · August 24, 2026
Asian Technology Shares Fall as Alibaba Sells $10.2 Billion of Stock at a Discount
The parent of Chinese memory maker YMTC is preparing a Shanghai listing, building a domestic capital-raising channel for chip manufacturing as Europe's tech investment gap with the US widens.
South China Morning PostUnlock full source trail, score history, and daily updates.
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