▲Election Risk in Commodity Exporters

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 46 · +2 since Oct 11 · ranged 44 to 46

Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.

Why the conviction moved

• Oct 12
  Strengthened +2

  Datafolha shows Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula 52% to 48% before the October 25 runoff, and the Ibovespa rose 7.7% to above 200,000 after the first round. The contest is repricing Brazilian assets directly. Polymarket's runoff-margin market ($680K liquidity) puts about 88% on a Bolsonaro win, with the largest share on a 4-8 point margin.

• Oct 11
  Strengthened +2

  Brazil's tight Bolsonaro-Lula runoff on October 25 pits sharply different fiscal paths against each other in a major commodity exporter. That keeps an election risk premium in the real and local rates until the vote.

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Source trail

• Supporting · October 12, 2026

  Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in Brazil's runoff polls as household consumption heads for its weakest growth since the pandemic

  Datafolha shows Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula 52% to 48% before the October 25 runoff, and the Ibovespa rose 7.7% to above 200,000 after the first round. The contest is repricing Brazilian assets directly. Polymarket's runoff-margin market ($680K liquidity) puts about 88% on a Bolsonaro win, with the largest share on a 4-8 point margin.

  The Hindu

• Supporting · October 11, 2026

  Flávio Bolsonaro Pledges Only Inflation-Linked Minimum Wage Rises Before Brazil's Oct. 25 Runoff

  Brazil's tight Bolsonaro-Lula runoff on October 25 pits sharply different fiscal paths against each other in a major commodity exporter. That keeps an election risk premium in the real and local rates until the vote.

  Folha de S.Paulo (Mercado)