▼Election Risk in Commodity Exporters

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 42 · -2 since Oct 9 · ranged 42 to 44

Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.

Why the conviction moved

• Oct 9
  Strengthened +2

  Brazil's runoff is tied in the polls. Flávio Bolsonaro proposes a constitutional overhaul of the courts, and a federal judge has let one betting operator keep working despite Lula's ban. Both raise institutional-policy risk ahead of the October 25 vote.

• Oct 7
  Strengthened +2

  Lula trails Flávio Bolsonaro by about two points before Brazil's October 25 runoff, and Lula's campaign is targeting the 21% of voters who abstained. A near-tied runoff in a major commodity exporter keeps a policy-risk premium on the real and on local debt through the vote.

Showing the last 2 days. Unlock the full record.

Source trail

• Supporting · October 9, 2026

  Lula adopts a fiscal-discipline message for Brazil's October 25 runoff as polls show a tie with Flávio Bolsonaro

  Brazil's runoff is tied in the polls. Flávio Bolsonaro proposes a constitutional overhaul of the courts, and a federal judge has let one betting operator keep working despite Lula's ban. Both raise institutional-policy risk ahead of the October 25 vote.

  Folha de S.Paulo

• Supporting · October 7, 2026

  Lula trails Flávio Bolsonaro by about two points heading into Brazil's October 25 runoff

  Lula trails Flávio Bolsonaro by about two points before Brazil's October 25 runoff, and Lula's campaign is targeting the 21% of voters who abstained. A near-tied runoff in a major commodity exporter keeps a policy-risk premium on the real and on local debt through the vote.

  MercoPress