Over the next 3-6 months stronger US data revives expectations of Fed rate hikes, driving a firmer dollar, equity selloffs in export-heavy markets, and pressure on hard assets as the IMF warns of recurring economic shocks.
strengthening · confidence 100 · 0 7d · +31 30d · Medium term (3-9 months) · tracking since June 8, 2026 · updated September 14, 2026
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Interest-rate futures price roughly a 60 percent chance of a quarter-point hike at the September 16 meeting under Fed Chair Warsh, with oil near $108 a barrel supplying the inflation case against Trump's public pressure for cuts. Polymarket's 'Fed rate hike in 2026' market sits at 89% (+2.5pts, $185K book) and its December contract prices a 25bp increase at 56% against 39% no change, so the tightening path is now the market's base case rather than a fear — the mechanism shifts from data surprise to an oil-driven inflation impulse the Fed cannot look through.
Warsh's Fed meets this week with a hike priced at roughly two in three, the ECB has already taken its deposit rate to 2.5 percent and swaps price a near-certain BoJ increase Thursday — three of the largest central banks tightening simultaneously. Polymarket's September Fed market puts a 25bp increase at 79% on a $10.7M book and prices zero 2026 cuts at 94%, so the synchronised move removes the offsetting-easing channel that has previously cushioned global risk assets.
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Supporting · September 14, 2026
Fed Chair Warsh Heads Into a Rate Decision That Puts Him Against Trump
Interest-rate futures price roughly a 60 percent chance of a quarter-point hike at the September 16 meeting under Fed Chair Warsh, with oil near $108 a barrel supplying the inflation case against Trump's public pressure for cuts. Polymarket's 'Fed rate hike in 2026' market sits at 89% (+2.5pts, $185K book) and its December contract prices a 25bp increase at 56% against 39% no change, so the tightening path is now the market's base case rather than a fear — the mechanism shifts from data surprise to an oil-driven inflation impulse the Fed cannot look through.
Financial TimesSupporting · September 13, 2026
Warsh's Fed Meets This Week With a Rate Increase Priced at Roughly Two in Three
Warsh's Fed meets this week with a hike priced at roughly two in three, the ECB has already taken its deposit rate to 2.5 percent and swaps price a near-certain BoJ increase Thursday — three of the largest central banks tightening simultaneously. Polymarket's September Fed market puts a 25bp increase at 79% on a $10.7M book and prices zero 2026 cuts at 94%, so the synchronised move removes the offsetting-easing channel that has previously cushioned global risk assets.
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