Washington, Moscow and Beijing increasingly treat the end of the Ukraine war as a bargain among themselves, so European governments and Kyiv keep losing influence over the terms while being asked to fund the outcome.
forming · confidence 40 · Emerging (watchlist) · tracking since October 19, 2026 · updated October 19, 2026
The Kremlin confirms talks on a Putin-Trump-Xi meeting in Shenzhen on the sidelines of next month's APEC summit to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war, and Ukraine is not invited. This is the three-power format the thesis describes, although a senior US official says Trump has not agreed.
Supporting · October 19, 2026
Putin proposes a summit with Trump and Xi in Shenzhen to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war
The Kremlin confirms talks on a Putin-Trump-Xi meeting in Shenzhen on the sidelines of next month's APEC summit to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war, and Ukraine is not invited. This is the three-power format the thesis describes, although a senior US official says Trump has not agreed.
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