As high crude prices persist, large fuel-importing economies will keep using export levies, subsidies and price caps instead of letting prices adjust. That produces unofficial markets, fiscal strain and capital outflows each time oil rises.
forming · confidence 40 · Emerging (watchlist) · tracking since November 1, 2026 · updated November 1, 2026
India scrapped its petrol export duty and raised levies on diesel and jet fuel while foreign investors pulled $35 billion from Indian stocks. In Pakistan, cooking gas sells at twice the official price on the open market and distributors threaten a strike. Both show the pattern this thesis predicts: tax-based rationing, unofficial markets and capital outflows.
Supporting · November 1, 2026
India scraps its petrol export duty and raises levies on diesel and jet fuel as foreign investors pull $35 billion from Indian stocks
India scrapped its petrol export duty and raised levies on diesel and jet fuel while foreign investors pulled $35 billion from Indian stocks. In Pakistan, cooking gas sells at twice the official price on the open market and distributors threaten a strike. Both show the pattern this thesis predicts: tax-based rationing, unofficial markets and capital outflows.
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