As long as the US blockade holds, Iran's lost oil income will keep turning into budget deficits that push the state toward central-bank financing, rial depreciation and capital flight by domestic savers.
forming · confidence 40 · Emerging (watchlist) · tracking since November 14, 2026 · updated November 14, 2026
Iran is drafting next year's budget on the assumption that oil revenue falls to zero, after Trump said a deal was not needed to end the war and the US blockade would stay. Tehran is now planning around the blockade as a lasting fiscal hole, which raises the odds of deficit monetisation and rial pressure. Polymarket puts an end to the blockade by December 31 at just 22%, down 4.9 points on a $389K book.
Supporting · November 14, 2026
Iran drafts next year's budget on the assumption that oil revenue falls to zero
Iran is drafting next year's budget on the assumption that oil revenue falls to zero, after Trump said a deal was not needed to end the war and the US blockade would stay. Tehran is now planning around the blockade as a lasting fiscal hole, which raises the odds of deficit monetisation and rial pressure. Polymarket puts an end to the blockade by December 31 at just 22%, down 4.9 points on a $389K book.
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