▼Iran War Spills Across Fronts

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 98 · -2 since Oct 28 · ranged 98 to 100

Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.

Why the conviction moved

• Oct 28
  Strengthened +4

  The Houthis say they hit Saudi Arabia's largest refinery, and Iran told mediators that any new attack would bring strikes on Gulf airports and pipelines. The conflict is now reaching Saudi downstream assets and the overland bypass routes once seen as insulated. The Nov 15 ceasefire market at 49% (thin, ~$71K book) gives no clear call, so the price neither confirms nor rules out a widening.

• Oct 27
  Strengthened +2

  Pakistan and Turkey, which lie outside the Gulf, are now direct parties to the Hormuz security talks after October's 28 shipping attacks. The conflict keeps pulling in third-party states.

Showing the last 2 days. Unlock the full record.

Source trail

• Supporting · October 28, 2026

  Houthis Say They Hit Saudi Arabia's Largest Refinery as Washington Tells Gulf Allies to Prepare for an Iran Campaign After the Midterms

  The Houthis say they hit Saudi Arabia's largest refinery, and Iran told mediators that any new attack would bring strikes on Gulf airports and pipelines. The conflict is now reaching Saudi downstream assets and the overland bypass routes once seen as insulated. The Nov 15 ceasefire market at 49% (thin, ~$71K book) gives no clear call, so the price neither confirms nor rules out a widening.

  OilPrice

• Supporting · October 27, 2026

  Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish security chiefs press Iran on Hormuz after a record month of tanker attacks

  Pakistan and Turkey, which lie outside the Gulf, are now direct parties to the Hormuz security talks after October's 28 shipping attacks. The conflict keeps pulling in third-party states.

  Dawn