▼Japan Chooses Scarce Labour Over Cheap Labour

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 32 · -2 since Oct 11 · ranged 32 to 34

Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.

Why the conviction moved

• Oct 7
  Strengthened +2

  Japan's real wages rose 1.5% in August, the eighth straight gain, with base salaries up 3.8%, which keeps an October Bank of Japan hike in play after September's increase. Part of the real-wage gain reflects government relief that lowers measured inflation, so the confirmation is partial.

• Oct 6
  Strengthened +3

  Sources told Reuters the Bank of Japan may declare in its October 30 outlook report that underlying inflation has reached its 2% target, one month after raising its policy rate to a 31-year high. That would open the way to more tightening, as the thesis expects, and Nidec's yen bonds already trade at the lowest price among more than 3,000 local corporate notes.

Showing the last 2 days. Unlock the full record.

Source trail

• Supporting · October 7, 2026

  Japan's real wages rise 1.5% in August, an eighth straight gain that keeps another Bank of Japan hike in play

  Japan's real wages rose 1.5% in August, the eighth straight gain, with base salaries up 3.8%, which keeps an October Bank of Japan hike in play after September's increase. Part of the real-wage gain reflects government relief that lowers measured inflation, so the confirmation is partial.

  The Japan Times (Business)

• Supporting · October 6, 2026

  Bank of Japan prepares to declare that underlying inflation has reached its 2% target

  Sources told Reuters the Bank of Japan may declare in its October 30 outlook report that underlying inflation has reached its 2% target, one month after raising its policy rate to a 31-year high. That would open the way to more tightening, as the thesis expects, and Nidec's yen bonds already trade at the lowest price among more than 3,000 local corporate notes.

  Investing.com Economy