Governments will keep reaching for balance-sheet tools to suppress long-term yields, and bond markets will keep repricing duration higher anyway, so each intervention transfers demand into scarce assets instead of lowering borrowing costs.
strengthening · confidence 100 · 0 7d · +31 30d · Medium term (3-9 months) · tracking since August 24, 2026 · updated October 12, 2026
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At the Bangkok meetings, the IMF's Kristalina Georgieva warned that global public debt will exceed 100% of output before 2030 and that interest already takes more than a tenth of revenue in the average developing country. A rising stock of debt with rising servicing costs is the pressure that keeps duration supply heavy and long-end yields hard to suppress.
The 30-year Treasury yield ended Friday at about 5.60%, near two-decade highs, as pre-election spending adds to fiscal worries and finance ministers meet in Bangkok facing high debt and oil above $100. Duration is still being repriced higher even with official balance-sheet support, and the oil shock adds an inflation premium on top of the fiscal one.
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Supporting · October 12, 2026
IMF opens its Bangkok meetings warning that global public debt will exceed 100% of output before 2030
At the Bangkok meetings, the IMF's Kristalina Georgieva warned that global public debt will exceed 100% of output before 2030 and that interest already takes more than a tenth of revenue in the average developing country. A rising stock of debt with rising servicing costs is the pressure that keeps duration supply heavy and long-end yields hard to suppress.
Financial TimesSupporting · October 11, 2026
US Long-Term Yields Stay Near Two-Decade Highs as Pre-Election Spending Adds to Fiscal Worries
The 30-year Treasury yield ended Friday at about 5.60%, near two-decade highs, as pre-election spending adds to fiscal worries and finance ministers meet in Bangkok facing high debt and oil above $100. Duration is still being repriced higher even with official balance-sheet support, and the oil shock adds an inflation premium on top of the fiscal one.
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