Governments will keep reaching for balance-sheet tools to suppress long-term yields, and bond markets will keep repricing duration higher anyway, so each intervention transfers demand into scarce assets instead of lowering borrowing costs.
strengthening · confidence 100 · 0 7d · +34 30d · Medium term (3-9 months) · tracking since August 24, 2026 · updated October 10, 2026
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Now 100
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The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 5.24% and the 30-year near 5.63%, and Bessent skipped the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok. Long-end yields are holding at cycle highs despite official efforts to contain them, which is what the thesis predicts.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is pushing a two-year cut to the consumption tax on food while pledging to fund it without new government bonds and to fully compensate local governments for lost revenue. The pledge is an attempt to avoid adding to JGB supply, but it raises unanswered questions about how the cut will be funded while household spending keeps falling.
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Supporting · October 10, 2026
Ten-Year Treasury Yield Ends Week at 5.24% as Bessent Skips the IMF and World Bank Meetings in Bangkok
The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 5.24% and the 30-year near 5.63%, and Bessent skipped the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok. Long-end yields are holding at cycle highs despite official efforts to contain them, which is what the thesis predicts.
The Japan TimesContext · October 9, 2026
Japanese household spending falls again as Takaichi pushes a two-year cut to the consumption tax on food
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is pushing a two-year cut to the consumption tax on food while pledging to fund it without new government bonds and to fully compensate local governments for lost revenue. The pledge is an attempt to avoid adding to JGB supply, but it raises unanswered questions about how the cut will be funded while household spending keeps falling.
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