Domestic political change in Russia-friendly European states keeps narrowing Moscow's ability to block or split EU sanctions consensus, so Russia increasingly relies on energy contracts rather than allied governments to keep influence in Europe.
forming · confidence 40 · Emerging (watchlist) · tracking since October 26, 2026 · updated October 26, 2026
Peskov's offer to resume gas sales to Europe, limited by spare volumes because Asian buyers are absorbing Russian gas, shows Moscow leaning on energy contracts as a channel of influence in Europe as allied governments become less reliable.
Aleksandar Vučić conceded Serbia's election to the student-led list, Brussels welcomed the result immediately, and Vučić warned that sanctions on Russia could follow by spring. A key Russia-friendly government is gone, though the Student List has said it would keep Belgrade's existing policy toward Moscow, which limits how quickly Russia loses influence.
Supporting · October 26, 2026
Kremlin says Russia could resume gas sales to Europe weeks after Washington waived sanctions on its diesel
Peskov's offer to resume gas sales to Europe, limited by spare volumes because Asian buyers are absorbing Russian gas, shows Moscow leaning on energy contracts as a channel of influence in Europe as allied governments become less reliable.
KommersantSupporting · October 26, 2026
Vučić concedes Serbia's election to a student-led list and warns sanctions on Russia could follow by spring
Aleksandar Vučić conceded Serbia's election to the student-led list, Brussels welcomed the result immediately, and Vučić warned that sanctions on Russia could follow by spring. A key Russia-friendly government is gone, though the Student List has said it would keep Belgrade's existing policy toward Moscow, which limits how quickly Russia loses influence.
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