More importing states keep routing sanctioned crude through compliant-looking structures and non-dollar payment channels, so restrictions increasingly change the price and the intermediaries rather than the flow of oil itself.
weakening · confidence 36 · Emerging (watchlist) · tracking since September 12, 2026 · updated September 14, 2026
Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.
Now 36 · -2 since Sep 13 · ranged 36 to 38
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Indonesia said it will keep buying Russian crude where purchases comply with rules, stating the position as its president arrived at the BRICS summit. A large Asian importer publicly framing sanctioned-barrel purchases as rule-compliant is precisely the compliant-looking structure the thesis describes, and doing it at a BRICS venue links the flow to the payment-channel question.
Supporting · September 12, 2026
Indonesia Says It Will Keep Buying Russian Crude Where the Purchases Comply With Rules
Indonesia said it will keep buying Russian crude where purchases comply with rules, stating the position as its president arrived at the BRICS summit. A large Asian importer publicly framing sanctioned-barrel purchases as rule-compliant is precisely the compliant-looking structure the thesis describes, and doing it at a BRICS venue links the flow to the payment-channel question.
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