▼Ukraine's Deep Strikes on Russian Energy and Logistics

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 85 · -2 since Sep 13 · ranged 85 to 87

Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.

Why the conviction moved

• Sep 13
  Strengthened +4

  The Nizhnekamsk target is a petrochemical complex, extending the campaign against Russian refining and processing capacity deep into Tatarstan alongside more than 60 drones reported intercepted over Rostov. Each successful hit on downstream processing pressures Moscow's product exports rather than just crude volumes.

• Sep 10
  Strengthened +6

  Ukraine's drone strike on a Russian Caspian port extends the deep-strike campaign from refineries to export terminals, the node that converts Russian hydrocarbons into revenue. Russia's simultaneous strikes on Odesa shipping show the retaliation half of the thesis running in parallel.

Showing the last 2 days. Unlock the full record.

Source trail

• Supporting · September 13, 2026

  Drones Strike Tatarstan Petrochemical City, With Casualty Accounts in Dispute

  The Nizhnekamsk target is a petrochemical complex, extending the campaign against Russian refining and processing capacity deep into Tatarstan alongside more than 60 drones reported intercepted over Rostov. Each successful hit on downstream processing pressures Moscow's product exports rather than just crude volumes.

  Ostorozhno Novosti

• Supporting · September 10, 2026

  Ukrainian Drones Hit a Russian Caspian Port as Moscow Strikes Ships in Odesa

  Ukraine's drone strike on a Russian Caspian port extends the deep-strike campaign from refineries to export terminals, the node that converts Russian hydrocarbons into revenue. Russia's simultaneous strikes on Odesa shipping show the retaliation half of the thesis running in parallel.

  Al Jazeera