▼US Imposes Export Controls on Frontier AI Models

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 54 · -2 since Jun 30 · ranged 54 to 56

Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.

Why the conviction moved

• Jun 27
  Strengthened +4

  Washington permitted only a restricted release of Anthropic's most powerful model, continuing to treat frontier AI systems as controlled strategic technology.

• Jun 19
  Strengthened +7

  Washington's export restriction on Anthropic's top models forced a global shutdown of the company's latest systems, a concrete extension of export-control authority to specific frontier AI systems.

• Jun 19
  Strengthened

  A June 12 US export-control directive forced Anthropic to suspend Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all foreign nationals—the first documented case of BIS asserting export authority over a deployed model's access (Nextgov, IAPP, CEPA)—directly confirming the thesis.

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Source trail

• Supporting · June 27, 2026

  The AI Trade Faces a Reckoning as Bubble Fears Grow and Washington Tightens Its Grip

  Washington permitted only a restricted release of Anthropic's most powerful model, continuing to treat frontier AI systems as controlled strategic technology.

  The Japan Times

• Supporting · June 19, 2026

  United States Cuts Off Allied Access to Anthropic's Top AI Models

  Washington's export restriction on Anthropic's top models forced a global shutdown of the company's latest systems, a concrete extension of export-control authority to specific frontier AI systems.

  Al Jazeera