Morning Edition · Monday, June 29, 2026
Europe Begins Planning for Defense Without the United States
Polling cited by analysts shows trust in Washington as an ally has collapsed across Europe, accelerating debate over a continental security architecture.
European governments have begun to plan seriously for a defense that does not assume American support. RBC, citing Foreign Affairs, reported survey findings that only about 11 percent of respondents across 15 European countries still view the United States as an ally, with a majority doubting Washington would come to Europe's aid in a conflict.
The shift is occurring even as the two sides publicly display unity. Euronews reported that the United States marked its 250th anniversary in Brussels with an invitation-only event drawing nearly 10,000 guests, including North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary General Mark Rutte, alongside local protests over the weekend-long closure of a public park.
The gap between the ceremony and the polling reflects the current situation. Officials still talk about transatlantic solidarity, while European publics and planners increasingly assume they will have to provide for their own security as Washington shifts attention and forces elsewhere.
That assumption has economic consequences. Higher European defense spending, new procurement and an effort to build industrial capacity reorder budgets and supply chains, and they raise questions about how a continent long reliant on the American security guarantee will finance its own.
Part of a tracked trend
US Accelerates Military Withdrawal From Europe
Washington speeds troop withdrawals from Europe over the next 3-6 months even as the Ukraine war spills onto NATO territory, forcing European states to confront a security gap.
- If true, who benefits
European defense contractors and advocates of joint EU borrowing gain from the case for higher spending; the framing also serves Russian outlets eager to show a fracturing transatlantic alliance.
- The nuance
The 11 percent figure is real but comes from the European Council on Foreign Relations, not Foreign Affairs as cited, and about half of respondents still call the United States a "necessary partner," which tempers the "collapse" framing.
An open-source-intelligence read of how likely this story is true with its real nuance, not a judgment of any outlet. It assesses the claim, weighing independent and adversarial reporting. How we label confidence.
What this means
A durable loss of European confidence in the American security guarantee forces higher defense spending and a restructuring of the continent's industrial base, with lasting fiscal effects. The contrast between ceremonial unity and collapsing public trust shows how far the relationship has shifted.
What to watch
- European defense budget commitments and joint procurement plans, the concrete measure of whether planning becomes spending.
- The pace of US troop drawdowns from Europe, which would confirm the retrenchment driving the rethink.
Observations to monitor, not financial advice.
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