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Morning Edition · Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Ukraine Expands Drone Campaign Against Russian Refineries as Both Grids Come Under Fire

Kyiv struck another oil refinery deep inside Russia while Russian strikes killed civilians in Ukraine, sustaining a war of attrition aimed at each side's energy revenue and infrastructure.

Ukraine Expands Drone Campaign Against Russian Refineries as Both Grids Come Under Fire

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine is expanding its long-range drone campaign with fresh strikes deep inside Russia, hitting another oil refinery, according to Al Jazeera, which also reported that Russian attacks killed three people in Ukraine. Russian outlets described the war from the opposite side. TASS reported that a Ukrainian strike on a vehicle in the Belgorod region killed one person and wounded three, and Kommersant reported that Russia's defense ministry said its forces had captured the settlements of Ukrainske and Kopani in the Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions.

The refinery strikes are the economically significant element. By targeting Russia's refining capacity, Ukraine is attacking the revenue that funds the war and the fuel supply that keeps the domestic economy running. Russia's own central bank has cited a temporary drop in motor-fuel production and Ukrainian attacks on refineries as forces pushing gasoline prices up and creating shortages in parts of the country.

The battlefield claims from each side cannot be independently verified, and the two governments describe both territorial control and casualty figures very differently.

Part of a tracked trend

Ukraine's Deep Strikes on Russian Energy and Logistics

Ukraine sustains a campaign against Russian refineries and supply lines over the next 3-6 months, pressuring Moscow's oil revenue while Russia retaliates against Ukraine's grid.

Veracity: Corroborated
83/100
If true, who benefits

Non-Russian crude producers and refiners gain from any interruption to Russian supply, and Kyiv gains a narrative that it is degrading Moscow's war revenue.

The nuance

The refinery campaign and its effect on Russian fuel prices are well documented, but the casualty totals and Russia's claimed capture of Ukrainske and Kopani come from each government and are not independently verified.

An open-source-intelligence read of how likely this story is true with its real nuance, not a judgment of any outlet. It assesses the claim, weighing independent and adversarial reporting. How we label confidence.

What this means

Ukraine's strategy of striking refineries turns the war into a contest over energy revenue and fuel supply, with direct consequences for Russian inflation and for global crude flows. As long as the campaign continues, Russia faces domestic fuel stress even as it presses territorial gains.

What to watch

  • The frequency and reach of Ukrainian strikes on refineries, which determine how much Russian export and fuel capacity stays offline.
  • Russian retail gasoline prices and regional shortages, a measure of how much the campaign is hurting the domestic economy.
  • Russian advances in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, for whether battlefield momentum shifts the diplomatic calculus.

Observations to monitor, not financial advice.

3 sources

Synthesized from: Al Jazeera · TASS · Kommersant