Morning Edition · Wednesday, July 1, 2026
Wall Street Closed Its Best Quarter Since 2020 as Bitcoin and Gold Diverged
A rally led by semiconductor shares and easing war fears lifted stocks over the second quarter, even as bitcoin fell below $59,000 and gold held near recent highs.
Global equity markets ended the second quarter with broad gains. The S&P 500 posted its best quarter since 2020 and rose about 9.6% in the first half of the year, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its strongest first half since 2021, according to CNBC. Israel's Globes noted that Wall Street closed its strongest quarter in six years even as the Tel Aviv exchange finished its weakest month since October 2023, a reminder that the rally was concentrated rather than universal.
The advance was led by semiconductor shares as concern over high artificial-intelligence valuations eased and the Middle East conflict moved toward an interim settlement. The Nasdaq Composite gained more than 12% over the half.
Hard assets were more divided. Gold held near $4,030 an ounce and silver traded around $60, both near recent highs, while bitcoin slipped below $59,000 on June 30, down roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak near $126,000, according to Fortune. The split matters for a sound-money reading of the market. Gold, a long-established monetary asset, is serving as a store of value while equities reflect expectations of abundant liquidity and easing policy. Bitcoin, which supporters have promoted as a digital form of gold, has instead behaved as a volatile risk asset that moves more sharply than the broader market, and it fell as speculative positioning unwound. That divergence suggests the current rally depends more on expected central-bank support and enthusiasm for a small group of technology companies than on demand for hard money.
Part of a tracked trend
Renewed Fed Tightening Fears Rattle Global Markets
Over the next 3-6 months stronger US data revives expectations of Fed rate hikes, driving a firmer dollar, equity selloffs in export-heavy markets, and pressure on hard assets as the IMF warns of recurring economic shocks.
What this means
A quarter this strong, driven by a small number of semiconductor stocks and hopes for easier policy, concentrates risk in a narrow part of the market. The gap between a firm gold price and a falling bitcoin shows investors are not treating the two as interchangeable, and that the equity gains depend on expectations of liquidity rather than a lasting improvement in fundamentals.
What to watch
- Second-quarter earnings from the largest technology and semiconductor firms. Results that fall short of high expectations would test how much of the rally is justified.
- The relationship between gold and bitcoin. Continued divergence would confirm that investors are seeking protection in metal rather than cryptocurrency.
- Whether gains broaden beyond semiconductor makers, which would signal a healthier advance rather than a narrow one.
Observations to monitor, not financial advice.
More from this edition
- Euro-Area Inflation Eased in June as the Energy Shock Receded
- Iran Rejects Direct Talks With Washington, Lifting Oil and Testing a Fragile Truce
- Ukraine Expands Drone Campaign Against Russian Refineries as Both Grids Come Under Fire
- Europe Confronts Its Security Bill as Ukraine Seeks More Funds and NATO Talks of Standing Alone
- Europe Debates How to Turn 37 Trillion Euros in Savings Into Investment
- UN Scientific Panel Warns of Large Benefits and Large Risks From AI
- More Than 1,000 Died in Spain's Heat Wave as Europe Endured a Scorching June
- Venezuela Reels From Earthquakes as Deported Migrants Are Feared Dead
- Russia's Central Bank Signals Higher Rates as Fuel Shortages Spread
- Pakistan and India Trade Accusations Over Cross-Border Strikes
- Beijing Blames Tokyo for Deteriorating Relations as Asian Tensions Simmer