Gold Slips Toward $4,100 Even as the Gulf War Reignites

A widening war in the Gulf would normally lift gold. This week it did the opposite. The metal eased to about $4,100 an ounce, down roughly 1.5 percent over five sessions, reporting from The National and Morgan Stanley describes. That is a notable distance below the roughly $5,595 an ounce gold reached on 28 January 2026, before the conflict escalated in late February.

The reason lies in real interest rates. Higher oil prices push up inflation expectations, and markets have responded by pricing in fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts, and in some scenarios rate increases, Morgan Stanley notes. Higher expected real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding a metal that pays no interest, and a firmer dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers outside the United States. Both forces have worked against the safe-haven demand that drove gold higher earlier in the crisis.

From a sound-money view, the episode is instructive rather than bearish. Gold is not falling because monetary discipline has returned. It is falling because the same energy shock that erodes purchasing power has forced central banks to keep policy tight, and tight policy temporarily outweighs the hedge. Central-bank buying and physical demand remain the structural source of demand supporting the price.