Morning Edition · Wednesday, September 9, 2026Published at 1:13 AM EDT · New York
A senior regional intelligence official told Ynet the warning came from a source Abu Dhabi considered very credible, while the Israeli prime minister denies receiving it.

A new book, cited by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, says that about ten days before the October 7, 2023 attack, President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan of the United Arab Emirates telephoned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to warn that Yahya Sinwar, then the Hamas leader in Gaza, was preparing a major operation against Israel, TASS reported.
A senior Middle Eastern intelligence official confirmed to the Israeli outlet Ynet that Abu Dhabi passed Israel a warning from a source it regarded as very credible, saying Hamas was preparing a significant and imminent action, Ynet reported in Hebrew. The official said the information was treated with great seriousness in Abu Dhabi but declined to describe how it was conveyed or whether the two leaders discussed it directly. Netanyahu denies the account. Ynet's headline frames the dispute as contradictory versions rather than a settled fact, and no document has been published that resolves it.
The claim matters beyond Israeli domestic politics. It describes Gulf states operating as an intelligence channel into Israel while maintaining relations with the actors on the other side of the conflict, a role that has since expanded into mediation across the region. Whether or not the specific call happened as described, the reported channel is consistent with how Gulf capitals have positioned themselves since.
Part of a tracked trend
Gulf Capitals Become the Region's Intelligence and Mediation Hub
Gulf states keep converting their access to every side of Middle Eastern conflicts into a mediation monopoly, so regional de-escalation and the energy risk premium attached to it increasingly depend on decisions made in Abu Dhabi, Doha and Riyadh rather than in Washington.
Netanyahu's Israeli political opponents and the campaign for a full state commission of inquiry gain most, and Abu Dhabi gains standing as the party that saw the attack coming, which strengthens its position as the region's indispensable intermediary.
The account originates in a single book by Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval and rests on anonymous intelligence sourcing, Netanyahu's office denies it outright, and the Emirati position is the load-bearing gap, since Abu Dhabi has stopped short of denying the warning without confirming it or the alleged 45-minute call.
An open-source-intelligence read of how likely this story is true with its real nuance, not a judgment of any outlet. It assesses the claim, weighing independent and adversarial reporting. How we label confidence.
What this means
Gulf capitals have converted intelligence access and mediation into political leverage, and each disclosure about that role strengthens their position as the parties that regional and global powers must negotiate through. For investors the channel matters because Abu Dhabi, Doha and Riyadh are now the places where regional de-escalation is negotiated, and de-escalation is what removes the war premium currently built into crude and Gulf shipping costs. Israeli political stability is the second exposure, since an unresolved dispute over pre-attack warnings directly affects the coalition's durability.
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