Houthi Forces Capture the Red Sea Port of Mocha, Reaching Within 70 Kilometers of Bab el-Mandeb

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi forces took the Red Sea port city of Mocha on Thursday after several days of fighting, and troops loyal to the internationally recognized government withdrew south toward the coastal district of Dhubab, Al Jazeera reported. Xinhua put the city about 70 kilometers north of the narrowest point of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the passage between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden that carries an estimated 10 to 12 percent of world seaborne trade. Mocha was the government's last fully controlled harbor on that coast and had served as the main base for operations along the western shoreline.

Tareq Saleh, vice chairman of Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council, said government units including the National Resistance, the Giants Brigades and the Nation's Shield forces took casualties over several days and that commanders had set up an alternative command center to regroup with the Arab coalition. Dhubab sits directly on the strait, opposite the island of Perim. The Houthis also took Zuqar Island and positions in the Hanish group in the southern Red Sea, using boats to land fighters, according to reporting compiled by the South China Morning Post.

Accounts of who directed the offensive diverge sharply. Two Iranian sources cited in wire reporting said Tehran instructed the Houthis to escalate and promised weapons and funding, while a senior Iranian official said Iran "does not control the Houthis" in a message relayed to Riyadh through Pakistan. Houthi-affiliated outlets described the advance as a Yemeni response to Saudi bombing, and the Houthi-run Saba agency said Saudi aircraft carried out roughly 40 further strikes on Taiz, Hodeidah, al-Jawf and Marib on Thursday, after a claim by Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree of 54 strikes in the previous 12 hours. Saudi authorities briefly issued danger alerts for Khamis Mushait and Abha before lifting them. None of these tallies has been independently confirmed.

Markets reacted to position rather than to any new attack. October West Texas Intermediate futures moved above $100 a barrel, and France 24 reported Brent trading above $106, though other price services quoted Brent nearer $101 during the session. Indicative war risk insurance premiums have risen to about 0.75 percent of a vessel's value from roughly 0.3 percent before the Houthis announced their July blockade on ships linked to Saudi ports. Traffic through Bab el-Mandeb has already fallen below half its normal level, with Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd and the tanker operator Frontline routing vessels around the Cape of Good Hope.

The strategic problem is that Bab el-Mandeb is the alternative route. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut since February, Saudi Arabia has pushed barrels west through the pipeline to the Red Sea and out past Yemen. Analysts cited in energy coverage estimate that losing both passages at once would remove close to 7 percent of world oil supply from the market, and that Asia-bound cargoes forced around Africa add roughly 34 days and more than $5 million in freight per voyage. The Houthis have not declared the strait closed, and no vessel has yet been interdicted from the newly captured positions.