Russia's air campaign turns to Ukraine's tax base, costing Kyiv more than $1.5bn in revenue

Russia has shifted the aim of its long-range strikes from Ukraine's electricity system to the businesses that generate its tax receipts. The Financial Times reports that drone and missile attacks on warehouses, steel plants, ports and railways have deprived the Ukrainian government of more than $1.5bn in tax revenue.

The targeting logic is different from the grid campaign. Destroying transformers creates blackouts that can be repaired within weeks. Destroying a steel plant, a port terminal or a logistics hub removes the output, the payroll and the value-added tax and corporate tax those activities produce, and the loss continues for as long as the facility stays down. Ukraine funds a growing share of its budget from external grants and loans, so every point of domestic revenue lost transfers directly onto European and American taxpayers or onto new borrowing.

Against that, Kyiv's asset sales look small. TASS reports that Ukraine expects to raise close to $45m from the sale of state enterprises, and the Russian state agency notes that the companies typically offered are either idle or long lossmaking. Russian outlets have an evident interest in presenting Ukraine's finances as failing, and Ukrainian officials describe the privatisation programme as a structural reform rather than a budget measure. Even taking the most favourable reading, the proceeds amount to roughly 3 percent of the revenue the Financial Times says the strikes have already erased.

Ukraine has been pursuing the same strategy in reverse, striking Russian refineries and logistics. Both sides have concluded that industrial and fiscal capacity, not front-line territory, is the decisive target. That conclusion tends to lengthen wars rather than end them, because neither economy collapses quickly and each new strike raises the political cost of accepting a pause.