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Morning Edition · Thursday, October 8, 2026Published at 1:19 AM EDT · New York
Hormuz shipping falls to lowest since July as a Kpler analyst suspects Gulf producers are paying Iran for passage
Middle East crude exports nearly recovered to prewar volumes in late September, but a growing share now leaves from Red Sea and Gulf of Oman ports outside the strait.
Seven commodity vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, the fewest since July 23, according to Kpler shipping data reported by Reuters, which said the decline followed tanker attacks in the waterway last week that reached their highest level since the war between the US, Israel and Iran began. Crude moving through the strait fell 27% from its wartime high to 10.1 million barrels per day, which is 74% of the prewar level, The National reported. Most of the decline came from ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.
Total supply has remained stronger than the strait figures suggest. Exports from the Gulf of Oman coast and the Red Sea rose to 6.7 million barrels per day, more than twice prewar levels, analysts told Reuters. Kpler estimates that Middle East crude and condensate exports averaged about 16.5 million barrels per day in September and exceeded the prewar average of 18 million on several days in the last week of the month, OilPrice reported. It added that the recovery has done surprisingly little to bring prices down.
The more consequential claim is about money. Michelle Brohard, Kpler's head of policy and geopolitical risk, suggested that some Gulf states may be paying Iran to let their cargoes through, Al Jazeera reported. The payments could give Tehran a significant share of each cargo's value. Al Jazeera also cited a report that one shipping firm paid Iran $2 million for a single vessel's safe transit. India, Pakistan, Iraq, Malaysia and China are understood to be negotiating directly with Tehran for safe passage of their tankers. Kpler described the payment theory as a suspicion rather than a confirmed finding. None of the reports reviewed cited a Gulf government confirming any payment.
Part of a tracked trend
Hormuz Chokepoint Repricing
Recurring Gulf conflict forces energy exporters and importers to build costly workarounds around the Strait of Hormuz, permanently raising the risk premium embedded in Gulf trade and infrastructure.
Veracity: Plausible
50/100- If true, who benefits
If the payments exist, Iran earns revenue that weakens US sanctions, and importers that deal directly with Tehran get their cargoes through before buyers that rely on US naval protection.
- The nuance
The drop in transits rests on Kpler data reported by Reuters and The National, but the claim that Gulf governments pay Iran is a suspicion stated by Kpler analyst Michelle Brohard. Her Kpler colleague Amena Bakr has said Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states would reject any toll system, and the reported payments of up to $2 million came from ship operators, not governments (Al Jazeera, AGBI).
An open-source-intelligence read of how likely this story is true with its real nuance, not a judgment of any outlet. It assesses the claim, weighing independent and adversarial reporting. How we label confidence.
What this means
If the toll exists, Iran is now earning revenue from its ability to disrupt the strait. That weakens the financial pressure that US sanctions are meant to apply, and it rewards importers that negotiate with Tehran bilaterally over those that rely on US naval protection. Exposed parties include tanker insurers, Gulf producers whose margins shrink by the cost of passage, and Washington's ability to isolate Iran financially. The market already prices disruption. It does not price a working arrangement in which Iran is paid for not attacking ships. The closest precedent is the 1987-88 Tanker War, when Kuwait put its tankers under the US flag for naval escort. Today several large Asian buyers appear to be dealing with Iran directly, which is the opposite of that arrangement. The desk's read is that over the coming months more volume will move to the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman routes, and the infrastructure that serves them will become a more frequent target, as the September attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline already showed. That read assumes the US does not restore escorted traffic through the strait. A sustained recovery in Hormuz transit counts under US escort, or credible evidence that no payments exist, would weaken it.
Synthesized from: OilPrice · Investing.com (Reuters) · The National · Al Jazeera
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Comments
1Oct 8, 5:19 AM · edited
The 74% figure implies a prewar Hormuz crude flow near 13.6 million barrels per day, so the 3.5 million shortfall is roughly offset by the more than 3.35 million rise in Gulf of Oman and Red Sea exports.