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Morning Edition · Monday, October 12, 2026UpdatedPublished at 7:35 AM EDT · New York
Washington threatens to block arms for Ukraine unless Kyiv stops striking Russian refineries
Zelensky says Ukraine will stop only if Russia stops hitting Ukrainian energy sites, and the Kremlin says he lacks the will to settle after Trump said Ukraine needs a new president.
Updated at 7:35 AM EDT
Russia struck a Kharkiv power plant and a Kyiv power station within hours of the ceasefire announcement, while Ukraine's drones appeared to hold off hitting Russian refineries overnight, and the Kremlin still has not formally confirmed the deal.
US officials are lobbying European capitals and Kyiv after President Trump's diesel deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin. They have threatened to block arms for Ukraine unless it stops attacking Russian oil refineries, the Financial Times reported. This is the most direct use of US military supply as leverage over Ukraine's own strikes since the war began.
President Trump publicly criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for continuing the strikes and called for Ukraine to replace him. According to The New York Times, Zelensky answered that Ukraine would stop if Russia stopped too. Russian state agency TASS, citing Axios, reported that Trump is "fuming" and believes the strikes are pushing up US gasoline prices. US fuel prices are a political problem for the White House weeks before the midterm elections.
Russia's own conduct has complicated its position in the dispute. Hours after Trump announced the energy ceasefire, Russian forces struck a power plant in Kharkiv and a power station in Kyiv, causing outages in several districts, the Kyiv Independent reported. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries appeared to pause overnight, according to the Moscow Times, suggesting Kyiv held off while Moscow's strikes continued. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to formally confirm the ceasefire on Monday, saying only that "contacts are ongoing."
Moscow used the dispute to repeat its own position. Peskov, asked about Trump's remark that Ukraine needs a new president, said Zelensky does not show the political will needed to settle the conflict, Russian business daily Kommersant reported.
Each side's account serves its interests. Kyiv treats refinery strikes as its main way to cut the oil revenue that funds Russia's war, and it presents a halt as acceptable only if Russia also stops striking Ukraine's power grid. Moscow benefits when the dispute is framed as a matter of Zelensky's personal will rather than of terms, even as its own forces continue striking Ukrainian energy facilities. Washington presents the strikes as a cause of high fuel prices for American consumers.
Part of a tracked trend
Ukraine's Deep Strikes on Russian Energy and Logistics
Ukraine sustains a campaign against Russian refineries and supply lines over the next 3-6 months, pressuring Moscow's oil revenue while Russia retaliates against Ukraine's grid.
Veracity: Plausible
74/100- If true, who benefits
Moscow gains if the threat works, because its refinery output and diesel export earnings would recover. The White House gets lower pump prices before the midterms. European governments that pay for US weapons through the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) would see the value of that spending fall.
- The nuance
Reuters' summary of the Financial Times report rests on unnamed European officials and describes a threat to PURL and to intelligence sharing, not a decision already taken. Trump's remark about a new Ukrainian leader is confirmed through the Kremlin's reply. The article's claim that this is the most direct leverage since the war began is not supported, because the March 2025 pause in intelligence sharing was an action, not a threat.
An open-source-intelligence read of how likely this story is true with its real nuance, not a judgment of any outlet. It assesses the claim, weighing independent and adversarial reporting. How we label confidence.
What this means
Synthesized from: Financial Times · The New York Times · TASS · Kommersant
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Comments
1Oct 12, 5:11 AM
The arms threat and the diesel license work together, since the Russian diesel Washington has licensed for export comes from the same refineries Ukraine is being pressed to stop striking.