Brent ends October 13.6% higher as Trump weighs new Iran strikes and OPEC+ moves to hold output

Oil traders closed October expecting the Iran war to escalate again. On Friday the December Brent contract expired and settled up $2.76, or 2.4%, at $117.64 a barrel, after reaching $118 during the session. The more active January contract rose $2.63 to $113.43, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled 2.08% higher at $104.12. CNBC said traders were preparing for possible US military action after Tuesday's midterm elections, and cited an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks by Yemen's Houthis on Saudi Arabia. Brent rose 13.6% over the month, and WTI rose 15.2%, according to market tallies.

Israeli and US officials describe the timing differently. The Israeli business daily Globes reported that President Donald Trump spoke with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. According to Globes, Trump has not decided whether to resume fighting, and Israeli officials believe that diplomacy will be hard to continue if there is no agreement by Monday. Globes also quoted Trump as saying the United States could deal with Iran's nuclear facilities "in ten minutes." In Atlanta, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at the end of the Group of 20 (G20) foreign ministers' meeting that Trump had set no deadline for the Qatar-led talks. He added that military strikes remain an option.

Tehran says publicly that talks are still possible but sets conditions on them. Al Jazeera reported that both foreign ministers still describe a diplomatic end to the war as possible. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said an aide was in Qatar to continue consultations. On Saturday, a senior Iranian official said there would be no nuclear talks and no reopening of Hormuz until Washington accepts Iran's demands.

Producers are not responding with more supply in the short term. Seven members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) are set to hold December output steady, according to a Reuters report carried by Investing.com. Those members had already kept November output at 31.01 million barrels per day. The investment response is longer term. Chevron raised its exploration spending by 50% and is returning to high-impact frontier wells after years of concentrating on the US Gulf of Mexico and the Permian Basin. Barrels from those wells will take years to arrive. The risk is closer for Saudi Arabia: the US embassy in Riyadh has ordered non-emergency staff to leave because of Houthi attacks on airports and other infrastructure.