Oil Falls as Qatar Brokers a Two-Day Plan to Reopen Hormuz Before the US Midterms

Crude prices fell on Monday after Iranian and Qatari officials held a third straight day of talks aimed at ending the US-Israeli war on Iran. Brent futures dropped $1.59, or 1.4%, to $111.84 a barrel early in the Asian trading session. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, fell 1.5% to $102.56. A later update from Reuters, carried by Investing.com, put the decline at 3%, citing optimism about the Qatari-led process.

The talks now follow a defined sequence. Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, said Qatar persuaded Tehran to shorten its original seven-day plan to two days: Washington would take a set of measures on the first day, and Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz on the second. President Donald Trump has said the United States is "not in that much of a hurry" because "we've knocked out their navy," and he has said there will be no new strikes before the midterm elections. Axios reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is urging Trump to resume strikes immediately after Tuesday's vote, while Trump prefers to give diplomacy more time.

Israeli coverage shows how fragile the pause looks from the region. The Israeli business daily Globes reported that residents of Beirut's Dahiyeh district have moved out of their homes for fear the war will resume. The same live coverage quoted Trump saying he will call the waterway "the Trump Strait." In Iran, the state news agency IRNA reported from Yazd that students, teachers and officials are preparing for the 13 Aban march on Wednesday, the official "national day of struggle against global arrogance." IRNA wrote that this year the march carries the mark of "regional developments and recent events." That is the domestic message Tehran is sending while its diplomats negotiate in Doha.

Monday's decline follows a sustained increase in prices. Brent ended October at a six-month high. OilPrice noted that benchmarks were on course for a fourth straight monthly gain. It also pointed out that a month ago, reports that Hormuz flows had recovered to pre-war levels pushed prices down only briefly. Analysts quoted by Reuters said traders are watching for tougher rhetoric that could push Brent toward $120 after the midterms.