Germany Starts Winter Well Short of Its Gas Storage Target as Tanker Attack Tests Pakistan's Hormuz Deal With Iran

Two gas-importing regions are entering the northern winter with thin supply margins. Russia's BFM.ru, citing RIA Novosti, reports that German underground storage has fallen below 60%, and that Latvia and Slovakia are also below that level. Germany's network regulator, the Bundesnetzagentur, put the level at 61.7% on Oct. 29. The country's storage rules call for at least 80% on Nov. 1, although six facilities only have to reach 45%.

The other pressure point is in South Asia. Nikkei Asia reports that Pakistan's agreement with Iran for safe passage through Hormuz is being tested after an attack on a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker. The Qatari-chartered Al Mayeda, bound for Pakistan, was struck near the strait on Oct. 30, shortly after Iranian authorities had reportedly approved its passage. All 25 crew members were safe. Qatar and Saudi Arabia condemned the attack, and no party has claimed it. Pakistan and Iraq signed separate transit agreements with Iran in May. If the cargo does not arrive, Pakistan may have to buy on the spot market, where prices have more than tripled since before the war.

Higher prices are changing demand. OilPrice reports that the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have driven up electric vehicle sales and reduced gas use in favor of other power sources. With the next United Nations climate conference (COP31) starting next week, some participants say faster electrification could become an energy-security policy and not only a climate policy.

The sources each have reasons to emphasize their version. Russian state outlets have a clear interest in highlighting Europe's vulnerability after it cut Russian pipeline gas. The German regulator's own figure supports their point, even though it is slightly higher than theirs. The Pakistan case shows that a bilateral agreement with Tehran does not protect a cargo when the attacker is unknown.