Argentina's Monthly Inflation Reaches 2.2% in October, and Private Salaried Jobs Fall for a 15th Month

What this means

The mechanism is inertia. Once the fiscal deficit is closed, the remaining inflation sits in indexed contracts and concentrated sectors, and high real interest rates slow the economy without cutting those prices quickly. The exposed parties are holders of Argentine peso debt, who need real returns to stay positive, salaried workers, and the government's political capital before 2027. The stall was partly expected by consultancies, but the overshoot is new. The rise in self-employment registrations is a sign of informality, which reduces tax revenue and pension contributions over time. The consensus treats opening the economy to imports as a reliable way to lower prices in concentrated sectors. That works only if the exchange rate stays stable while imports rise. Brazil's Real Plan in the 1990s is a precedent. Monthly inflation stayed in the low single digits for years until indexation was removed contract by contract. The desk's read is that Argentine monthly inflation will likely stay near 2% for several months rather than fall quickly. That depends on the government avoiding a faster devaluation and leaving indexation rules unchanged. This read is wrong if the government removes indexation in regulated prices and November inflation drops clearly below the October level.