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Morning Edition · Tuesday, September 15, 2026Published at 2:27 AM EDT · New York
Anthropic's economists put three US growth paths to 2030 into the policy debate
Output ends between $34.1 trillion and $44.4 trillion in 2025 dollars, and knowledge-worker unemployment ends between 2.9% and 17.9%, depending on the scenario.
Anthropic's economics team published Scenarios for our Economic Future on September 9, and the numbers are now circulating in Washington alongside the pacing argument. The report models three paths for the US economy. In the modest scenario…
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Part of a tracked trend
Frontier Labs Publish the Macro Case for Their Own Technology
AI labs increasingly publish formal macroeconomic scenarios — GDP paths, labor-share trajectories, displacement estimates — that become reference inputs to fiscal and regulatory debate, so expect recurring lab-authored economic modeling, contested replication by academic and official forecasters, and policy anchored on numbers the vendors themselves produced.
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