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Morning Edition · Thursday, October 1, 2026Published at 2:20 AM EDT · New York
Anthropic Publishes a 2030 Model Where the Fastest AI Growth Path Cuts Labor's Share to 45%
Its extreme scenario pairs 15.4% annual GDP growth with a 21.5% fall in cognitive employment from mid-2026 levels.
Anthropic's economics team released Scenarios for our Economic Future, an interactive model of how AI could affect US growth, employment and wages through 2030, together with a working paper and a survey of 10,980 American adults. The compa…
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Part of a tracked trend
Frontier Labs Publish the Macro Case for Their Own Technology
AI labs increasingly publish formal macroeconomic scenarios — GDP paths, labor-share trajectories, displacement estimates — that become reference inputs to fiscal and regulatory debate, so expect recurring lab-authored economic modeling, contested replication by academic and official forecasters, and policy anchored on numbers the vendors themselves produced.
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