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Morning Edition · Saturday, October 3, 2026Published at 2:33 AM EDT · New York
Anthropic Publishes Three Scenarios for the US Economy in 2030, Including One With 11.9% Unemployment
Its modest path has GDP up 1.6% to $34.1 trillion, while the extreme path has output up 32.4% to $44.4 trillion and labor's share of income falling from about 60% to 45%.
Anthropic's economics team has published a scenario model of how AI may affect US growth, employment, and wages by 2030, paired with a public survey comparing readers' expectations against those of more than 10,000 Americans. The model runs…
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Part of a tracked trend
Frontier Labs Publish the Macro Case for Their Own Technology
AI labs increasingly publish formal macroeconomic scenarios — GDP paths, labor-share trajectories, displacement estimates — that become reference inputs to fiscal and regulatory debate, so expect recurring lab-authored economic modeling, contested replication by academic and official forecasters, and policy anchored on numbers the vendors themselves produced.
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