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Morning Edition · Wednesday, October 14, 2026Published at 2:06 AM EDT · New York
Anthropic's economic model projects 2030 US output up to 32.4% higher with AI, and cognitive-job unemployment near 18% in the extreme case
The median answer in Anthropic's survey of 10,980 US adults matches the middle scenario, in which output rises 8.3% while knowledge-worker wages stay flat.
Anthropic's Economics team has published an interactive scenario model of how AI could affect US growth, jobs and wages through 2030. A companion working paper, "Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI," is credited to Anton Korinek, Charl…
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Part of a tracked trend
Frontier Labs Publish the Macro Case for Their Own Technology
AI labs increasingly publish formal macroeconomic scenarios — GDP paths, labor-share trajectories, displacement estimates — that become reference inputs to fiscal and regulatory debate, so expect recurring lab-authored economic modeling, contested replication by academic and official forecasters, and policy anchored on numbers the vendors themselves produced.
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