Two Pivotal African Votes: Ethiopia Heads to Polls as Nigeria's Opposition Splinters

Two of Africa's largest economies are holding elections that point in a similar direction, toward incumbents strengthened by divided oppositions. In Ethiopia, voters go to the polls on June 1, and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party is widely expected to win decisively, Africanews reported from his home town of Beshasha. More than 50 million of the country's roughly 120 million people are registered to vote, though a fragmented opposition and violence in parts of the country may prevent many from voting.

In Nigeria, the former presidential candidate Peter Obi has been named as a candidate for the 2027 election, Africanews reported, ensuring that the opposition to President Bola Tinubu will again be split. Obi, who finished a close third in 2023, will face Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress and the veteran politician Atiku Abubakar.

The division helps the incumbent. The South China Morning Post reported that Obi's candidacy keeps the opposition divided, because Obi rejected a joint ticket with Abubakar. A vote split across several blocs gives Tinubu an early advantage.

Both elections have economic stakes. Nigeria and Ethiopia are managing difficult currency reforms, high inflation, and heavy debt payments, and the stability of their governments determines whether those changes continue. Concentrated power can produce policy continuity, but it can also weaken the checks that restrain public spending.