Iran Weighs a Deal With Washington as Talks Resume Under Pressure

President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were moving rapidly after appearing to falter over Israel's Lebanon offensive, though one report indicated Iran had not yet sent its formal response to the United States.

Inside Iran, the leadership rejects any framing of capitulation, but subtle differences exist between factions over how far to compromise. Trump has demanded that Iran agree never to acquire a nuclear weapon and that the Strait of Hormuz remain open to unrestricted shipping. Iranian officials have objected to elements they say contradict the text under discussion.

Iranian state media, meanwhile, emphasized Tehran's support for Hezbollah and reported Israeli threats against Lebanon, signaling that Iran sees the Lebanon front and the nuclear talks as connected. This linkage gives Tehran leverage and also a reason for caution, since renewed fighting could collapse the negotiations.

For markets, the Strait of Hormuz is the central variable. A durable agreement that keeps the waterway open would remove a recurring source of risk to oil prices, while a breakdown would return that risk quickly.