German Exports Rise for a Third Month, but Factory Output Lags

German exports rose 0.9 percent in April from the previous month, a third consecutive monthly increase and a result that exceeded the forecasts of analysts surveyed by Reuters, who had expected a decline. Sales to European Union countries rose 1.0 percent, sales outside the bloc rose 0.7 percent, and shipments to the United States increased 1.8 percent, according to the official trade data.

The figure shows a degree of resilience for an economy that has struggled through the disruption of the Iran conflict and higher energy costs. Exports had fallen since the war began earlier this year, and the increase over three months suggests German manufacturers are still finding foreign demand despite difficult conditions abroad.

The result is not uniformly positive. Industrial production came in below expectations in the same period, which indicates that the export strength depends on existing orders and inventory rather than a broad increase in output. The gap between what German factories ship and what they produce is the key detail, because it determines whether the export recovery can continue.

The increase in sales to the United States is notable given Washington's renewal of broad tariffs on many trading partners. For now, German exporters are still reaching the American market, but whether that continues depends on where US trade policy settles in the months ahead.