Ukrainian Strikes on Refineries Push Russia Toward a Fuel Squeeze

Russia's fuel production is falling after a sustained Ukrainian campaign of drone strikes on refineries, and analysts cited by Deutsche Welle warn that seasonal increases in gasoline and diesel demand could push the system into a deeper shortage. The strikes target the export revenue that funds Russia's war, and the effect inside the country is now visible at gas stations.

The pressure is appearing as rationing. The Russian outlet RBC reported that Tatneft removed its caps on AI-92 gasoline and diesel at its stations after imposing them on June 16, while keeping a 30-liter limit on higher-grade AI-95. Temporary limits and their reversal at individual networks indicate supply that is tight rather than collapsing.

The episode is part of a campaign that pressures Russian oil income, while Russia strikes back against Ukraine's power grid. For a war economy already managing high interest rates and inflation, physical shortages of refined fuel are harder to conceal than financial pressure, because they affect households and freight transport directly.